MagicEightBall

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Week 2 - Five Games We Are Watching

USC v Stanford. Magic Eight Ball likes Stanford, but like USC QB Matt Barkley better.

Southern Cal over Stanford 17-10.

Auburn v UL Monroe

Auburn will not cover the spread, but will win by 10.

Alabama v Arkansas ‘Bama will show why they are and will continue to be number one in the land by winning by 3 TDs and a FG.

‘Tide over ‘Backs by 24.

Michigan v Massachusetts. So, why are we doing this? Oh, right, because Michigan did not have the small school big money charity blowout last week (recall BamaFest)

Or is it so Denard Robinson can put some Heisman noticed numbers up?

In any event M8B says Robinson by 4 scores and 7.

Michigan State v Notre Dame Well well well. So the Irish Brats didn’t want to join the Big10 all those years ago, and didn’t get invited back (as far as we know) when Syracuse was courted and Nebraska welcomed in with open arms.

Now they get themselves into the ACC so they can be big fish, but remain independent in football. Always got to get their own way.

Well Magic Eight ball says the Michigan State Spartans, whose friendly rivalry with Notre Dame goes back to the horse and buggy travel team days, is going to put a serious hurt on the Irish this Saturday.

Michigan State over Notre Dame by 17 points.

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Cats, Corns, and Nuts

Just 3 Big 10 in Top 25

Only 3 Big 10 Teams in the Top 25 NCAA Football squads this week.

Ohio State, after a squeeze play at Michigan State including sloppy play, turnovers and luck, ranked 12th just ahead of USC. Magic Eight Ball thinks USC should be ahead of Texas and future contests will prove it so.

Nebraska Cornhuskers, in their first season as a Big 10 team ranked 21st, and we agree, they deserve some real respect.

Now about the Northwestern Wildcats. This is a Cinderella story in the making that the Magic Eight Ball does not want to jinx.

So we will just say #GoCats .

by Douglas Black, Magic Eight Ball, ENERSPEC Stats and Specs, Friday, October 19, 2012

South Carolina(7) v Florida(2)

These two are so evenly matched statistically it’s crazy. #Florida (6-0) and South Carolina (6-1) have defensive numbers of 12.3 points per game allowed. #Gator Offensive line may have a slight advantage due to Gamecocks DT Quarles facing suspension and DE Clowney nursing a funny foot. Look for South Carolina to break loose on special teams, Florida to get some big rushing gains. Not much in the air, so low scoring close game is expected.

A #turnaround (or at least a buffering) for the ‘Gators in their quest for top spot.

Florida by 1 point over South Carolina.

Kansas State(4) v West Virginia(13)

The Kansas State #Wildcats(6-0) are not going to stop #Geno Smith, the gunslinger for the #Mountaineers. Last week’s West Virginia(5-1) loss to Texas Tech was an anomaly, and the #turnaround will be West Virginia getting back on track. Favored by oddsmakers (at time of tapping this out) by 2.5 points, we think more.

West Virginia over Kansas State by 10 points.

Alabama(1) v Tennessee

The unranked #Volunteers of Tennessee (3-3) are facing a formidable opponent and remarkably well-coached #CrimsonTide this Saturday. Tennessee’s offense has shown it can score points – 44, 20, and 31 against ranked teams Georgia, Florida and Mississippi State respectively. But the Vol defense gives up more.

If the ‘Bama offense does not score big and early, this will be a shootout in the end. Oddsmakers put the spread at -20 for Alabama, but we say it will be tighter. Over/under is currently 56 and don’t be surprised if it stays considerably south of that mark.
Overall, while not losing per-seee’, this game will be a #turnaround for Alabama, shaking up their topdog machismo and inserting the thought of losing a game, or two.

Alabama by 7 points over Tennessee

Nebraska v Northwestern

#Northwestern(5-1) has something to prove. Namely, that it is indeed a #BigTen powerhouse. Nebraska(4-2) has something to prove. Namely, that it can be a Big Ten powerhouse. And this Saturday’s contest will be a seasonal turning point for one or the other.

#Cornhuskers have not won on the road. Cats undefeated at home. Lot of points scored, back and forth. Back and forth. But this #turnaround will go to home team.

Northwestern over Nebraska by 3 points.

Michigan State v Michigan

The #MichiganState Spartans(4-3) travel to the #BigHouse in Ann Arbor in an attempt to win their 5th straight against the #Wolverines of Michigan(4-2). last week the Spartans simply ran out of steam, either mentally or physically, in a 2OT loss by 3 against Iowa. This won’t be tolerated by the Wolverines.

Denard Robinson’s squad, who’s only losses have come from the dominating ‘Tide and surprisingly talented Irishmen, has all the firepower needed to defeat the Spartans and #turnaround their state rivalry losing streak.

Michigan over Michigan State by 17 points.

Five Turnaround Games Saturday

Wow, they pulled it off. Came out with a win against Pitt.

Here is a possible scenario…

Oregon still plays Stanford and Oregon State they lose one of them

.
Alabama . Texas A&M squeak by with a victory.

Notre Dame still play USC Trojans , whip the Trojans butt.

Kansas State still play Texas, Upset.

Notre Dame Takes National Championship against Alabama in a very, very close game that reminds us all why we love this game so damn much.

Are The Irish Really Good Enough For Big Show In BCS?

by Douglas Black, November 4, 2012

Ok, so Johhny Football has some hype. And he is pretty damn good at scrambling, and making yards in the process. But is he another Flute, or Montana? I dunno. I think injuries are going to rear their ugly head in this new age of huge DTs and bombastic LBs. he won't last long, but I wish he would, The NFL could use a guy like this.

Footnote - MagicEightBall called this one dead nuts on! Irish Play 'Bama In Championship Undefeated!

Posted Monday, March 18, 2013 by Douglas Black

Some Surprising Predictions... Actuals will be posted below as games are played.

Anyone Can Win One

by Douglas Black, ENERSPEC/enerficiency, March 21, 2013

Part of the excitement with the NCAA Basketball Tournament comes from knowing any team can win in the first round. Thirty two games are played over the course of a couple days, loser go home.

The selection committee typically matches teams according to a pattern of inversion. That is, the teams considered the best in the tournament; usually those ranked in the top 5 or so by the most recent AP Poll, are paired against the lowest ranked in the Tournament.

That does not mean, however, that these lowest ranked teams are pushovers by any means. Most were champions in their own conferences, boasting win/loss records just as impressive as the Big Dogs, only they may not have been tested against a top tier program during regular season play.

But big upsets, say a number one or two seed team falling in the first round by an unlikely 15th or 16th Seed can and has happened. Just 8 years ago number 3 Kansas was stunned by 14 Seed Bucknell in Round One.

The middle-seeded teams are paired with each other making these among the most difficult to predict.

“Making predictions is hard, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra, NYY.

A team seeded 9th playing a team seeded 8th, with similar regular season records and strength of schedules can be a back and forth nail biter that ends with a buzzer beater. Odds makers experience panic attacks during 7/10 games.

One of the most exciting duels this year should be 7th seed Creighton Bluejays taking on the Bearcats of Cincinnati seeded tenth in the Midwest Region. The strong Bluejay offense, led by returning powerhouse Doug McDermott, will meet its match with this top-ranking rebounding club from Cinci.

And as they say, opposites attract. Whoever can exploit a weakness will tear it wide open.

Some Serious Ciphering

by Douglas Black, ENERSPEC/enerficiency. March 21, 2013

Everybody is an expert when it comes to filling out their own bracket. Once the selection committee announces the invited teams and their first round pairings, the number crunching begins.

For some, that means educated guesses backed by some blind loyalties. For many of us it means several hours of calculators, coffee and cigarettes, dissecting each of the 32 games ad nausea.

Free throw percentages verses rebounding rank. Winning streaks verses depth of bench. Fan exuberance verses the “coach” factor.
Well respected number-cruncher Nate Silver, considered a demi-god by some for his absolutely flawless political prognosticating during the Presidential elections, has turned his talent toward more important stuff – the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

Mr. Silver and his team of analysts have predicted the likelihood of each team advancing to their next round. The match ups are reciprocal percentage relationship. For example, where Michigan State plays Valparaiso, Silver gives the MSU Spartans a 83% chance of advancing to the second round. Inversely, Valpo is given a 17% chance of advancing to the second round.

According to Nate Silver, Indiana, Louisville and Florida have the highest chance of making the tournament final game at 36.1%, 34.2% and 20.3% respectively. Louisville, however, has best chance to take it all, says Silver.

I myself have constructed a rather complex if not Rube Goldberg-ish algorithm that takes many factors into account. Once a numeric score is produced by this algorithm, consideration is given to some of the opinions presented by sportswriters at ESPN, FOX, CBS, and the Blog-o-sphere.

And if you don’t at least take a look at what ‘Vegas has to say, from over/under on individual games to odds a team will make the Elite Eight or Final Four, you are not immersing yourself fully in the March madness experience.

While Panelists clearly think that the Nationals are the predominant NL favorite to get to the World Series, they predict things will be more up in the air in the American League but think the Tigers are most likely to return to the Fall Classic. One out of five panelists expects the Nats to have a parade down Pennsylvania Avenue to celebrate the franchise's first World Championship.

MLB PREDICTIONS – CHAMPIONS and AWARD WINNERS

by Douglas Black, ENERSPEC, April 20, 2013

While it may not be like being a voting member of the AP Poll for NCAA, it is still fun to offer input. Any true baseball fan can sign up here - http://www.fansatbat.mlb.com/ and click the 'JOIN NOW' button to register.